Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Crop Productivity and Adaption Strategies amidst Rainfall Variability Concerns in Chongwe District, Zambia.

Abstract

Climate change is a global challenge brought about by accelerated anthropogenic activities, leading to an increase in the presence of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere. Its impacts are profound in climate sensitive sectors such as smallholder agriculture. Zambia’s smallholder farmers are dependent on rain fed agriculture, and are thus vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Climate variability, manifested through extreme events such as droughts, floods and abnormal temperatures work synergistically with other factors to affect crop productivity. This study was aimed at examining the determinants of smallholder farmers’ crop productivity amidst variability in seasonal rainfall received in Chongwe, Zambia . Five study sites (villages) in were purposively sampled, namely, Mudenda, Mutakama, Mulwila, Kalilika and Kangalangala. A total of 35 respondents and three key informants were interviewed during this study. The respondents were all smallholder farmers while the key informants were representatives from the Zambia Meteorological Department, Chongwe District Agriculture Office and a Traditional Leader. The trend analysis revealed that rainfall in Chongwe had decreased at an annual rate of 9.60mm between 2000 and 2021. Even though the reduction is not statistically significant (p = 0.181) the downward trend in rainfall should move smallholder farmers to devise adaptation measures to combat the decreased annual rainfall. Further, maize yields had decreased at an annual rate of 0.012 ton/ha between 2010 and 2019 which was not statistically significant (p=0.812). An assessment of social factors that could influence maize productivity revealed household size (r = 0.754; p = 0.012) and farming experience (r = 0.344; p = 0.043) as significant factors that affected maize productivity among the sampled households.. The study concludes that the smallholder farmers studied have experiencing decreased rainfall trends and maize productivity which increases their vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. The study recommends that agricultural development interventions should focus on enhancing the resilience of smallholder farmers in Chongwe through climate change awareness, household income diversification and public social capital mechanisms.