Modelling the efficiency of Nature-based Solutions for water and sediment load management under climate change: A green and blue water perspective
Keywords:
green water flow, groundwater recharge, hybrid nature based solutions, sediment load, surface runoff, weather extremes
Abstract
Nature based solutions (NbSs) are being touted for water resource management in semi-arid areas to deal with increasing climatic and weather extremes. This study evaluated the efficiency of some commonly advocated for NbSs including reforestation, recharge structures and conservation tillage, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The lenses of blue and green water approach were used to assess the results under the historical and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, taking the Kaleya River Catchment, Zambia as a case study. The results showed that reforestation generated the largest benefits on blue and green water, with the best results being under the historical and the least under the RCP 8.5 climate. Hybrid NbS in the form of recharge structures primarily enhanced blue water availability, with negligible influence on green water flows (evapotranspiration) across all scenarios. Conservation tillage showed negligible effects on water balance components. The highest reduction on sediment load was simulated under recharge structures, followed by reforestation. Again, the best results for all NbS interventions were under the historical climate and lowest under the RCP 8.5. Overall, the best results for water and soil conservation were under the combination of all NbS interventions, suggesting synergistic effects. The findings highlight the potential of NbS to deal with increased climatic extremes in the future, and the need for integrating green water goals when designing NbS interventions to achieve better ecological, and socio-economic outcomes. The results can guide sustainable design of NbS interventions under a changing climate.References
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Alexander, L. & Herold, N. 2016. ClimPACT2: Indices and software. User Mannual.
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Le Roux, B., Van der laan, M., Vahrmeijer, T., BRISTOW, K. L. & ANNANDALE, J. G. 2017. Establishing and testing a catchment water footprint framework to inform sustainable irrigation water use for an aquifer under stress. Science of the Total Environment, 599, 1119-1129.
LI, C., Zhang, Y., Shen, Y., Kong, D. & Zhou, X. 2020. LUCC‐driven changes in gross primary production and actual evapotranspiration in northern China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD031705.
Martín, G. E., Costa, M. M. & Máñez, S. K. 2020. An operationalized classification of Nature Based Solutions for water-related hazards: From theory to practice. Ecological Economics, 167, 106460.
Matomela, N., LI, T. & Ikhumhen, H. O. 2020. Siting of rainwater harvesting potential sites in arid or semi-arid watersheds using GIS-based techniques. Environmental Processes, 7, 631-652.
Mfune, O. 2018. Towards ‘private forests’ in Zambia: opportunities, possibilities and risks. FAO Publication. Nature and Faune, 32, 11-15.
Mfune, O., Chisola, M. N. & Ziba, I. 2016. How Can Multifunctional Agriculture Support a Transition to a Green Economy in Africa? Lessons from the COMACO Model in Zambia. Agriculture, 6, 48.
Mihretie, F. A., Tsunekawa, A., Haregeweyn, N., Adgo, E., Tsubo, M., Ebabu, K., Masunaga, T., Kebede, B., Meshesha, D. T., Tsuji, W., Bayable, M. & Berihun, M. L. 2022. Tillage and crop management impacts on soil loss and crop yields in northwestern Ethiopia. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 10, 75-85.
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Pandey, A., Bishal, K., Kalura, P., Chowdary, V., Jha, C. & Cerdà, A. 2021. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) modeling approach to prioritize soil conservation management in river basin critical areas coupled with future climate scenario analysis. Air, Soil and Water Research, 14.
Park, J.-Y., Yu, Y.-S., Hwang, S.-J., Kim, C. & Kim, S.-J. 2014. SWAT modeling of best management practices for Chungju dam watershed in South Korea under future climate change scenarios. Paddy and Water Environment, 12, 65-75.
Raymond, C. M., Breil, M., Nita, M., Kabisch, N., De Bel, M., Enzi, V., Frantzeskaki, N., Geneletti, G., Lovinger, L. & Cardinaletti, M. 2017. An impact evaluation framework to support planning and evaluation of nature-based solutions projects. Report prepared by the EKLIPSE Expert Working Group on Nature-Based Solutions to Promote Climate Resilience in Urban Areas, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, University of Oxford.
Ricciardi, L., D'odorico, P., Galli, N., Chiarelli, D. D. & Rulli, M. C. 2022. Hydrological implications of large-scale afforestation in tropical biomes for climate change mitigation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 377, 20210391.
Rockström, J. & Falkenmark, M. 2000. Semiarid crop production from a hydrological perspective: gap between potential and actual yields. Critical reviews in plant sciences, 19, 319-346.
Rockström, J., Falkenmark, M., Allan, T., Folke, C., Gordon, L., Jägerskog, A., Kummu, M., Lannerstad, M., Meybeck, M. & Molden, D. 2014. The unfolding water drama in the Anthropocene: towards a resilience‐based perspective on water for global sustainability. Ecohydrology, 7, 1249-1261.
Rockström, J., Kaumbutho, P., Mwalley, J., Nzabi, A. W., Temesgen, M., Mawenya, L., Barron, J., Mutua, J. & Damgaard-Larsen, S. 2009. Conservation farming strategies in East and Southern Africa: Yields and rain water productivity from on-farm action research. Soil and Tillage Research, 103, 23-32.
Schyns, J. F., Hoekstra, A. Y., Booij, M. J., Hogeboom, R. J. & Mekonnen, M. M. 2019. Limits to the world’s green water resources for food, feed, fiber, timber, and bioenergy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 4893-4898.
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Published
2026-02-05
How to Cite
[1]
M. Chisola and M. van der Laan, “Modelling the efficiency of Nature-based Solutions for water and sediment load management under climate change: A green and blue water perspective”, Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 38-65, Feb. 2026.
Section
Original Research Articles
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